Panel on Urbanisation

Rethinking the Estimation and Projection of Urban and City Populations

New York City, 9-10 January 2006. Faculty Room, Low Library, Columbia University

Description of the Seminar

See the background questions for each panel

Agenda (Revision date: 5 December)

 

Click on the links below in the Agenda to view previous papers by the presenters.

 

Monday, January 9

8:30 AM
Breakfast (Presenters to deposit presentations on laptop.)

9:00 AM
Setting the Stage

Introduction and Objectives Hania Zlotnik
UN Population Division  

Spatial social science    The value of city and urban projections for development Gordon McGranahan
International
Institute for Environment and Development, LondonInternational contribution to the migration component Prospects for publishing workshop findingsMark Montgomery
Population Council
SUNY-Stony Brook  10:15 AM. Where Do We Stand?

Chair: Paul Cheung
UN Statistics Division

Lessons from the IUSSP panel on urbanization
Tony Champion, University of Newcastle-upon-Tyne
Conceptualising and Measuring Human Settlement in the 21st Century

The UN Population Division Cities Database
Thomas Buettner
UN Population Division

Urban Growth in Developing Countries:A Review of Current Trends and a Caution Regarding Existing Forecasts
World Urbanization Prospects The 2003 Revision
UN_1969_Growth of the World's Urban and Rural Population, 1920-2000
UN_1974_Manual VIII - Methods for Projections of Urban and Rural Population
UN_1980_Patterns of Urban and Rural Population Growth
*The above links will take you to PDF versions of the papers. Some of them are quite large, please be patient when downloading them*

Detecting the spatial extents of urban areas; linking extents to population 
Deborah Balk, Columbia University
The Distribution of People and the Dimension of Place: Methodologies to Improve the Global Estimation of Urban Extents
Determining Global Population Distribution: Methods, Applications and Data

Demographic surveys and spatial linkages in models of city growth
Mark Montgomery, Population Council, SUNY-Stony Brook

Cities Transformed, Discussion
George Martine, Brazilian Population Association

Population/Development/Environment Trends In A Globalized Context: Challenges For The 21st Century

12:00 PM. Working Lunch "Informal Thoughts on Urban
Population Projections"
Introduction:
Roberta Balstad
CIESIN EI Advance Project
Speaker: Joel Cohen
Rockefeller University 

1:30 PM. What Can We Learn from Remotely-Sensed Data?

Chair: Deborah Balk

Optical imagery at moderate and high resolutions
Chris Small, Columbia University

Spatial analysis of global urban extent from DMSP-OLS night lights

A global analysis of urban reflectance Optical imagery: Night-time lights

Chris Elvidge, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Nighttime Lights of the World: 1994-95

The potential of radar,
Son Ngheim, Ernesto Rodriguez

Jet Propulsion Laboratory,
Global Infrastructure: The Potential of SRTM Data to Break New Ground

Discussion
Steve Sheppard, Williams College 

3:30 PM . Measuring the Components of City Growth

Chair: Mark Montgomery

Small area estimates of urban fertility and mortality schedules
Renato Assuncao, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais

Empirical Bayes Estimation of Demographic Schedules for Small Areas
A Bayesian space varying parameter model applied to estimating fertility
schedules
Multiple cancer sites incidence rates estimation using a multivariate Bayesian model
Diffusion and prediction of Leishmaniasis in a large metropolitan area in Brazil with a Bayesian space-time model
Space varying coefficient models for small area data

Indirect estimates of migration; the scope for multi-regional projections
James Raymer, University of Southampton

Imposing Age and Spatial Structures on Inadequate Migration-Flow Datasets
Capturing the age and spatial structures of migration

Regional challenges in modelling growth,
Kam Wing Chan, University of Washington

Urbanization in China in the 1990s:
New Definition, Different Series, and Revised Trends

Nature and extent of slum populations,
S. ChandrasekharIndira, Ghandi Institutue for Development Research, Mumbai
Growth of Slums, Availability of Infrastructure and Demographic Outcomes in Slums: Evidence from India

Discussion
Dirk Jaspers
CELADE, CEPAL, UN 

6:30 PM. Dinner (location TBD)

Tuesday, January 10

8:30 AM. Breakfast (Presenters to deposit presentations on laptop.) 9:00 AM. New Forecasting Methods

Chair: Thomas Buettner

Classical and Bayesian approaches to forecasting city populations,
Mark Montgomery, Population Council SUNY-Stony Brook

Forecasting City Growth Rates in the Developing World: Illustrative Examples

Joint projections of urbanization and migration,
Brian O'Neill, IIASA
Population Aging and Future Carbon Emissions in the United States
Demographic Determinants of Household Energy Use in the United States
Conditional Probabilistic Population Projections: An Application to Climate Change
A Guide to Global Population Projections
Population scenarios based on probabilistic projections: An application for the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

Recent advances in urban forecasting,
Philippe Bocquier,
DIAL/IRD, AFRISTAT, Mali
World Urbanization Prospects an alternative to the UN model of projection compatible with the mobility transition theory

Projecting the urban poor,
Eduardo Moreno, UN Habitat 

DiscussionJoel Cohen
Rockefeller University 

10:30 AM. Urban Projections, Poverty, and the MDGsChair: TBA
Cities Transformed:Recommendations for the Demographic and Health Surveys
Cities Transformed: Looking Ahead UN Statistics DivisionPaul Cheung
UN Statistics Division  UNFPARogelio Fernandez-Castilla
UNFPA  UN Regional OfficesDirk Jaspers
CELADE, CEPAL, UN  US Census BureauJames Fitzsimmons
US Census Bureau  International Census effortsTufuku Zuberi
University of Pennsylvania 

Survey data providersLivia Montana
Macro International  Satellite data provision and acquisitionAndy Nelson
Joint Research Centre
of the European Commission, Italy
 

12:15 PM. Working Lunch
Group Discussion: How to Coordinate Efforts and Resources Chair: Uwe Deichmann 
World BankAutomated Census System for Densely Inhabited Districts
Information-based instruments for improved urban management, Volume 1 1:30 PM. Next Steps: Publication Strategy and Follow-on Workshop

Organisers

3:00 PM. Adjourn or Opportunity for smaller side-meetings

5:00 PM. Final adjournment

Workshop sponsored by the International Union for the Scientific Study of Population, the United Nations Population Division, and the NSF-ADVANCE  Project at the Earth Institute at Columbia University